20 Questions About North Korea

When North Korea conducts a nuclear or missile test, their goals are typically to enhance their defense capabilities and to gain leverage in negotiations. They are not aiming to directly threaten the United States, as they understand that such actions could lead to their own destruction.
—Frank Aum, J.D., Senior Expert on Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace

The security situation is worsening, with North Korea maintaining 30 to 60 nuclear weapons and producing six to eight more annually. The stalemate is problematic as neither side is taking steps to improve relations. This presents an opportunity to take diplomatic risks to address the situation and encourage North Korea to engage more openly.
—Frank Aum, J.D., Senior Expert on Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace

A study by the Center for Strategic International Studies shows that North Korea tends to behave better and avoid provocative actions when there is sustained official engagement with it. In contrast, when North Korea faces pressure from sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or policies like strategic patience, it often responds poorly. For example, during the six-year period from 2012 to 2018, the longest period of non-engagement in the past 30 years, North Korea made significant advances in its nuclear weapons program. This period saw four nuclear tests and over 90 ballistic missile tests, highlighting the negative impact of reduced diplomatic interaction.
—Frank Aum, J.D., Senior Expert on Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace

Comparing the current situation with the early 1990s Agreed Framework negotiations reveals significant differences. In the 1990s, North Korea was at an early stage in its nuclear weapons program, just beginning to produce the nuclear material necessary for warheads. This contrasts sharply with the present, where North Korea has significantly advanced its nuclear capabilities.
—Dr. Jim Walsh, Senior Research Associate at MIT’s Security Studies Program

In Northeast Asia today, a ballistic missile arms race is emerging. North Korea’s advancements in ballistic missile technology are prompting South Korea to enhance its own missile and missile defense capabilities. Although these developments are still in early stages, they are indicative of a growing regional arms race.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

In Southeast Asia, some local companies are engaging with North Korean entities despite international sanctions. These businesses offer North Koreans access to desired items and charge premium prices. This practice translates higher risks into higher costs for North Korea, but it has also enhanced their ability to acquire dual-use items and banned equipment. As a result, North Korea has been able to develop and test more advanced missiles and other components for its weapons of mass destruction programs.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

When considering North Korea, it’s important to recognize its role in a broader, complex regional context. The North Korean nuclear weapons program is a symptom of larger security issues and long-standing regional dynamics. Key points include:
• Foreign Policy and Sanctions: North Korea’s situation illustrates how potent sanctions can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, such as making the targeted country more efficient in evading these measures.
• Economic Ties with China: North Korea is closely integrated with China economically, with key elements of its economy embedded in Chinese commercial hubs. This relationship influences how North Korea operates and how negotiations might be approached.
• Complex Regional Dynamics: Addressing North Korea requires understanding its broader regional context and relationships, particularly with China. Policies and negotiations need to be informed by these realities to be effective.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

North Korea has been systematically testing components of its nuclear weapons system to enhance its defensive capabilities and strengthen its position in negotiations. This development has significant implications:
• Nuclear Warhead Testing: North Korea has tested nuclear warhead components, marking a threshold change that elevates the significance of its nuclear program. This advancement means that North Korea’s nuclear capabilities now have direct implications for U.S. homeland security.
• Strategic Goals: The tests are not only aimed at improving self-defense but also at leveraging its nuclear program to gain political advantages and enhance security through negotiations.
• Increased Stakes: As North Korea’s nuclear capabilities advance, the global attention and stakes associated with its testing have risen significantly.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

North Korea is estimated to possess between 30 and 60 nuclear warheads. This represents a small fraction of the world’s total nuclear arsenal, which consists of approximately 9,000 warheads. North Korea’s share of the global total is thus under 1%.
—Jenny Town, Senior Director of the Stimson’s Center Korea Program and 38 North

The U.S. has the military capability to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program, but it would come at a high cost. Due to the dispersed and hidden nature of North Korea’s facilities, any military action would likely escalate into a land war. Additionally, North Korea’s conventional long-range artillery, aimed at Seoul, would make such an operation extremely costly for both South Korea and U.S. troops and citizens stationed there.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

North Korea has made its demands clear: they seek a security guarantee, an economic package deal, the lifting of sanctions, and a peaceful coexistence based on respect for their sovereignty. Ultimately, they aim to secure a place in the international community.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

Kim Jong-un is not “crazy” but is acting strategically. His actions, such as missile tests and political purges, are calculated moves to strengthen his regime’s power and secure North Korea’s position on the global stage.
—Dr. Jim Walsh, Senior Research Associate at MIT’s Security Studies Program

North Korea’s nuclear buildup is partly in response to U.S. and allied military activities, such as decapitation strike exercises near its border, which are perceived as hostile. To address the issue, they suggest that the U.S. should focus on confidence-building measures, security assurances, and ending the Korean War. They argue that the U.S. needs to reconsider its decades-old, ineffective policies if it truly wants to achieve denuclearization and stability on the Korean peninsula.
—Colleen Moore, Director for advocacy at Women Cross DMZ

To make a nuclear weapon, a specific amount of nuclear material, like plutonium or highly enriched uranium, is needed. Current estimates suggest that North Korea could have produced enough material for up to 50 nuclear weapons, though these figures may not be entirely accurate.
—Jon Wolfsthal, Director of Global Risk at FAS.

North Korea needs security assurances before they will agree to denuclearize. The group’s view is that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is primarily for self-preservation, not for attacking the U.S., as such an attack would likely result in the end of the Kim regime. Therefore, they do not believe that a nuclear test would lead to a nuclear attack.
—Colleen Moore, Director for advocacy at Women Cross DMZ

Joe DeTrani notes that the availability of nuclear weapons and related technologies has increased, with individuals and groups willing to sell materials like highly enriched uranium. This accessibility poses a significant concern, as it makes it easier for more nation-states to acquire nuclear capabilities. DeTrani emphasizes the need for a shift toward more arms control agreements to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, advocating for fewer states possessing such weapons rather than more.
—Joe DeTrani, Ambassador Joseph R. DeTrani, the President of the Daniel Morgan Academy.

Yes, it is absolutely possible to negotiate with North Korea and find common ground.
—Joe DeTrani, Ambassador Joseph R. DeTrani, the President of the Daniel Morgan Academy.

U.S. military actions, such as exercises near North Korea, contribute to the country’s desire to build up its nuclear arsenal. She argues that to reduce tensions and achieve denuclearization, the U.S. should consider confidence-building measures, like formally ending the Korean War and stopping provocative military exercises. While recognizing the risks posed by North Korea’s nuclear tests, she emphasizes the importance of addressing the root causes of these actions through diplomacy and security assurances.
—Colleen Moore, Director for advocacy at Women Cross DMZ

The misconception that North Korea is on the verge of collapse overlooks the reality that the country is divided into two distinct segments: the elite 1% and the struggling 99%. While the majority faces food insecurity and economic difficulties, the elite class is thriving and often engages in international travel. Addressing this disparity is crucial, as failing to understand it can lead to misguided policies.
—Dr. John Park, Director of North Korea Project, Harvard Kennedy School

A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that engaging with North Korea tends to reduce its provocative actions, while sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or policies like strategic patience lead to negative responses. Notably, during the six years from 2012 to 2018, when official engagement was minimal, North Korea made significant advancements in its nuclear program, conducting four nuclear tests and over 90 ballistic missile tests.
—Frank Aum, J.D., Senior Expert on Northeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace