In a presentation hosted by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (REITI) in Tokyo, Marcus Noland, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussed North Korea’s worsening food insecurity as a complex humanitarian crisis. He explained that, despite severe shortages, the North Korean government had continued to prioritize military investments, funded largely by illicit activities, at the expense of its population.
Noland noted that, as of July 2023, food availability in North Korea had reached its lowest point since the 1990s famine, with grain quantities and prices reflecting the severity of the crisis. While food insecurity had been a long-standing issue, sanctions imposed in 2017 and pandemic-related restrictions had further exacerbated the problem. Looking ahead, Noland predicted that North Korea would likely continue to muddle through, but at a significant cost to its people.
Jon Wolfsthal, Director of Global Risk at the Federation of American Scientists, offered insights into North Korea’s nuclear tests, explaining that they don’t necessarily indicate an imminent attack. Instead, these tests serve various purposes, such as provoking a response, demonstrating military capabilities, or advancing technological progress. According to Wolfsthal, North Korea—like other nations that have conducted nuclear tests in the past—may use them as a deterrent or a tool for political and economic leverage.
Drawing a parallel to the U.S. and Russia, which have conducted over 1,000 and 800 nuclear tests respectively, Wolfsthal highlighted that none of those tests led to an attack. The true intention behind such tests often lies in showcasing strength or sending a message without triggering direct conflict. While North Korea’s tests raise international concern, Wolfsthal emphasized that they don’t necessarily signal preparations for a nuclear strike.