Part 5: Will Putin use nuclear weapons against the US?

The possibility of nuclear warfare, especially between the United States and Russia, remains one of the most pressing global security concerns. In general, the likelihood that Putin would use nuclear weapons against the U.S. is considered low, because it is thought that the Russia leader would not want to risk a US nuclear strike in response.

A “low” risk is not “no risk”, however. Given enough time, a nuclear war will happen again involving one or more of the nuclear armed countries with potentially catastrophic effects.

In addition, history provides examples where the world came dangerously close to nuclear war. Key moments include the Berlin Crises in the 1960s, and another near-miss in the 1980s. The most well-known instance of the US and Russia almost fighting a nuclear war was the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. However, President John F. Kennedy, against the advice of his military advisors, opted for a diplomatic resolution, averted disaster, and reinforced the importance of cautious decision-making during crises.

It is also worth remembering that both countries, the US and Russia, have nuclear doctrines that would allow using nuclear weapons first, if their side is losing a conventional war over what they see as a vital interest. For the US, that meant initiating a nuclear war, if NATO forces were overrun by Soviet conventional forces in Western Europe during the Cold War. More recently, Russia has suggested that Crimea, legally part of Ukraine, is a vital interest and could use nuclear weapons to defend the Russian position there.

The risk of nuclear war also depends on how each side views or perceives the other side. Putin’s possible use of a nuclear weapon could depend on whether he thinks the US would respond. If he believes that for some reason, the US and NATO would not respond, he might conclude he could get away with it. These and other miscalculations could lead to unprecedented and horrific results.