In the last six months, several highly respected scholars have suggested that North Korea has made a major shift in its foreign policy with the United States. For years, the view inside the US government has been that North Korea’s number one foreign policy objective is a diplomatic deal with the US—not Beijing, not Seoul, but Washington.
Washington, the thinking went, could offer more: more resources, more security, and more options for a country stuck in a region bursting with major powers (China, Russia, Japan, South Korea). The belief inside the Beltway was not unreasonable. In word and action, North Korean officials showed an interest in transforming its relationship with Washington.
North Korea’s progressing nuclear weapons and missile programs made a new relationship between the US and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea less likely, given the US goals of denuclearization. Perhaps each side had its version of “strategic patience”—namely, if a given side waited long enough, the other side would come around—and this gave them both a reason to hope for a happy outcome in the end.
If these scholars are right about a shift in Kim Jong Un’s foreign policy aims, then North Korea has given up on its version of strategic patience or whatever sustained the hope for a better relationship with the US and is instead moving on.
It is hard to tell whether Kim has made this shift, and even if he has, it might change later. But if he has, it is big news and probably unwelcome news.