The last several months have seen signs that North Korea may have decided to embark on a radically different foreign and military strategy. First, there was the suggestion that Pyongyang had reversed course in its policy toward the US and was now no longer interested in any relationship with Washington. Then came the shocking announcement that North Korea would no longer pursue peaceful reunification with South Korea and henceforth treat South Korea as a foreign country.
Finally, there was the proverbial bombshell. Sig Hecker and Bob Carlin, arguably the two most respected North Korea analysts in America, wrote a piece reporting their conclusion that North Korea had made a strategic decision to change course and pursue armed aggression against the South.
Sig Hecker, a former US nuclear weapons lab director, and Bob Carleton, a US intelligence official focusing on the DPRK, did not argue that war was coming soon. The two analysts instead claimed Kim had fundamentally redirected the government’s core objective: prepare for a war we plan to pursue when the time is right.
Not surprisingly, the piece drew immediate and strong reactions inside the US government and among the non-governmental analyst community. In the main, the reaction was respectful skepticism tinged with an unspoken fear: “I hope this isn’t true.” Some argued that North Korea would not ship military equipment to Russia if it were preparing for its own war. Others questioned whether Hecker and Carlin’s evidence for the claim was strong enough.
My own reaction was also a mix of skepticism and dread. It’s hard to believe that North Korea would believe that it could fight and win a war against the South. Even without US support, South Korea has a far more capable and robust military than North Korea. Moreover, it has the economy to support that military. And unlike Tokyo, Seoul hasn’t been shy about spending its money to aggressively bolster its military forces.
But if Putin could tell himself a story that the war in Ukraine would be easy, Kim may be able to tell himself a story that his victory on the battlefield is also easier than it looks.
I end up in the uncomfortable position of doubting that the North has made a hard choice for war but cannot fully discount the possibility.